BEIJING, March 9 (Reuters) – China’s export growth likely quickened in the January-February period, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, suggesting the world’s second-largest economy is on track to top last year’s record $1.2 trillion trade surplus over the course of 2026.
Trade data for the first two months of the year is expected to show outbound shipments from the $19 trillion economy grew 7.1% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms, according to the median forecast of 23 economists, up from the 6.6% increase recorded in December. The data will be released on Tuesday.
As such, the question remains: what, if anything, can stop China’s export dominance?
U.S. President Donald Trump’s revived tariff war against China over 2025 failed to slow the manufacturing powerhouse, with a push by Chinese firms to diversify beyond the world’s top consumer market by shifting focus to Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America cushioning the economy.
Now more governments are weighing up following Washington with trade curbs, concerned about the risk China poses to their manufacturing sectors and their exposure to Chinese firms flooding global markets with goods they cannot absorb at home because of deflation and excess capacity.
Premier Li Qiang announced last week that China would seek an economic growth target of 4.5%-5% for 2026, down from last year’s 5%, which was met largely through a one-fifth surge in its trade surplus.
Although policymakers pledged a “notable” increase in household consumption in the government’s next five-year plan, economists are sceptical that Beijing will move away from its reliance on exports any time soon, as the strategy document offered few specifics to bolster expectations for meaningful demand-side reform.
China’s imports likely increased 6.3% in Jan-Feb, according to the poll, up from 5.7% in December.
But even with signs that China may be buying more, the median estimate in the poll pointed to a trade surplus of $179.6 billion, well above the $169.21 billion recorded in the same period last year.
Factory activity data for February released last week showed Chinese firms still struggling to turn a profit at home, even as export orders improved, underscoring the continued appeal of exports for policymakers and producers heading into 2026.
Trump is expected to visit Beijing later this month for a highly anticipated leaders’ summit, but hopes for a meaningful truce between the two superpowers remain low, with both sides appearing ready to resume their trade war if necessary.
(Reporting by Joe Cash; Polling by Renusri K and Rahul Trivedi in Bengaluru and Jing Wang in Shanghai; Editing by Sam Holmes)
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