By Orathai Sriring and Kitiphong Thaichareon
BANGKOK, Jan 27 (Reuters) – Thailand’s economy is expected to grow 2.0% this year, the finance ministry said on Tuesday, maintaining its previous forecast, with support from tourism and domestic demand likely to offset a slowdown in export growth.
Exports, a key driver of Thai growth, are predicted to rise 1.0% this year, compared with an earlier forecast of a 1.5% decline, Vinit Visessuvanapoom, head of the finance ministry’s fiscal policy office, told a press conference.
But the growth in shipments is expected to slow from the 12.9% rate reached in 2025 due to the high base, softer global trade volumes, and risks from U.S. trade countermeasures, the ministry said.
Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy has been struggling with the appreciating baht, U.S. tariffs, high household debt, a border conflict with Cambodia and political uncertainty ahead of elections in early February.
The baht has gained about 1.1% against the dollar so far this year after a 9% rise in 2025, threatening the competitiveness of the export and tourism sectors.
“Tourism will be the main growth engine in 2026,” Vinit said, with foreign tourist arrivals projected to reach 35.5 million, up from about 33 million recorded last year but still much lower than the record of nearly 40 million visitors set in 2019, before the pandemic.
Private consumption is forecast to expand 2.5%, supported by resilient domestic activity, while private investment is projected to grow 3.2% as state-promoted projects begin to materialise, the ministry said.
Government investment is expected to contract by 1.7%, with a political transition and administrative processes likely to delay the fiscal 2027 budget plan by around three months. Government consumption is projected to grow 1.3%, the ministry said.
The ministry said it expected headline inflation at 0.3% this year, compared with a previous forecast of 0.5% and following last year’s rate of negative 0.14%. The central bank’s target range is between 1% and 3%.
“There will be more frequent discussions with the central bank on the inflation target, in every three months instead of once a year, to bring inflation back within the target range as quickly as possible,” Vinit saiid.
The ministry said there were risks from global trade volatility as well as high household and smaller business debt.
For 2025, the economy is estimated to have expanded 2.2%, with annual growth in the final quarter projected at 1.8%, Vinit said.
Official 2025 gross domestic product data will be released next month by the state planning agency. The economy expanded 2.5% in 2024.
The U.S. imposed a 19% tariff on imported goods from Thailand, in line with other countries in the region.
(Reporting by Orathai Sriring, Kitiphong Thaichareon, Chayut Setboonsarng; Editing by David Stanway)
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