MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s inflation likely eased in the first half of October, but still stuck above the central bank’s target, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, supporting bets the bank will maintain the benchmark lending rate at current levels for a prolonged time.
A median forecast of 10 analysts predicts an annual headline inflation of 4.38% for the first two weeks of the month, the lowest rate since March 2021, but still above the monetary authority’s target of 3%, plus or minus one percentage point.
Annual core inflation, which strips out some especially volatile energy and food prices, was seen at 5.49% during the same period, its lowest level since October 2021.
Banxico, as the central bank is known, last month decided to keep its key rate steady at 11.25% for the fourth straight meeting, with analysts predicting the rate will remain on hold until early 2024.
The bank’s board members also pushed off the deadline for inflation to converge to its target to the second quarter of 2025, after previously setting it at the fourth quarter of 2024.
Analysts also estimated headline inflation rose 0.34% compared to the previous two weeks, while core inflation was up 0.20%.
Mexico’s national statistics agency will publish official inflation data for the first two weeks of October on Tuesday.
(Report by Noe Torres; Additional reporting by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires; Editing by Alistair Bell)
