(Reuters) – The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.
The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus pandemic sidelined those differences, turning U.S. Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation to a cratering economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive rate hikes. Now, as Fed policymakers note improvement on inflation and some cooling in the labor market but also stronger-than-expected economic growth, divisions are more evident, with more varied choices: to raise rates again, skip for now but stay poised for more later, or take an extended pause.
All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
The following chart offers a stab at how officials currently stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in the graphic.
Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
Lisa Cook, John Michelle
Governor, Williams, Jerome Bowman,
permanent New York Powell, Fed Governor,
voter: “If Fed Chair, permanent
confirmed, I President, permanent voter: “The
will stay permanent voter: policy rate
focused on voter: Additional may need to
inflation “Right now evidence of rise further
until our job we need to persistently and stay
is done.” June keep this above-trend restrictive
21, 2023 restrictiv growth, or for some time
e stance that to return
of policy tightness in inflation to
in place the labor the FOMC’s
for some market is no goal.” Oct.
time.” longer 11, 2023
Oct. 18, easing, could
2023 put further
progress on
inflation at
risk and
could warrant
further
tightening of
monetary
policy.” Oct.
19, 2023
Philip
Patrick Jefferson, Christopher Loretta
Harker, Vice Waller, Mester,
Philadelphia Chair: “We Governor, Cleveland Fed
Fed President, are in a permanent President,
2023 voter: “I sensitive voter: “We 2024 voter:
think this is period of can wait, “We are likely
a time where risk watch and see near or at a
we just sit management how the holding point
for a little , where we economy on the funds
bit. It may be have to evolves rate.” Oct.
for an balance before making 20, 2023
extended the risk definitive
period; it may of not moves on the
not. But let’s having path of the
see how things tightened policy rate.”
evolve over enough, Oct. 18, 2023
the next few against
months.” Oct. the risk
18, 2023 of policy
being too
restrictiv
e.” Oct.
9, 2023
Michael Neel
Raphael Barr, Vice Kashkari,
Bostic, Chair of Minneapolis
Atlanta Fed Supervisio Fed
President, n, President,
2024 voter: “I permanent 2023 voter:
would say late voter: “In “Today I put
2024” is on my view, a 40%
the table for the most probability”
an important on the
interest-rate question scenario that
cut. Oct. 20, at this “we would
2023 point is have to push
not the federal
whether an funds rate
additional higher,
rate potentially
increase meaningfully
is needed higher.”
this year Sept. 26,
or not, 2023
but rather
how long
we will
need to
hold rates
at a
sufficient
ly
restrictiv
e level to
achieve
our
goals.”
Oct. 2,
2023
Austan
Goolsbee, Lorie Logan,
Chicago Dallas Fed
Fed President,
President, 2023 voter:
2023 “My focus is
voter: on price
“It’s stability and
undeniable what further
this (fall tightening
in U.S. may be needed
inflation) to achieve
is a our mandate.”
trend. It Oct. 19, 2023
wasn’t a
one-month
blip… we
have to
hope and
keep an
eye out to
make sure
that
continues.
” Oct. 16,
2023
Mary Daly,
San Thomas
Francisco Barkin,
Fed Richmond Fed
President, President,
2024 2024 voter:
voter: “I “I am still
would say looking to be
now the convinced,
risks of both that
how we demand is
balance settling and
those that any
things are weakness is
roughly feeding
balanced through to
— inflation.”
over-tight Oct. 17, 2023
ening
versus
under-tigh
tening —
but we
still have
high
inflation
and the
labor
market’s
still
strong.”
Oct. 10,
2023
Susan
Collins,
Boston Fed
President,
2025
voter:
“The
resilience
we’re
seeing in
the
economy is
part of
the reason
why, from
my view,
the rates
likely
need to
stay high
for
longer.”
Oct. 12,
2023
Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.5%, was in July.
Most policymakers as of September expected one more rate hike by year’s end. Neither Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed’s president since August and a voter in 2025, nor Adriana Kugler, a permanent voter who was confirmed to the Fed Board in September, have yet made any substantive policy remarks. The St. Louis Fed has begun a search to succeed its president, James Bullard, who took a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter.
(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
