A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Sonali Desai
Japan’s June inflation data hopped onto a widening trend for price pressures to start showing signs of peaking, although that provided limited cheer to investors in Asia – as did China’s latest measures to stimulate consumption.
Both factors softened some of the initial gloom from sharp post-earnings drops in Tesla and Netflix stocks on Thursday, although on Friday the MSCI Asia ex-Japan IT Index was still on course for its worst day since February.
While Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI) picked up a touch as expected, an underlying measure that’s closely watched by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) slowed for the first time since January 2022, matching trends seen in UK inflation this week and in the U.S. last week.
With a Reuters poll pointing to a sharp slowing in Tokyo’s core CPI for July next week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is likely to remain confident about sticking to Japan’s ultra-easy policy settings next Friday, keeping the yen on the back foot.
China’s latest efforts to boost consumption provided a small lift to mainland stocks, but markets continue to look ahead to the Politburo meeting, expected next week, for bigger stimulus announcements. The piecemeal measures unveiled so far suggest there’s plenty of scope for disappointment.
Where Beijing seems to be having greater impact is in propping up the Chinese yuan, which was holding the bulk of Thursday’s gains after another stronger-than-forecast midpoint setting on Friday.
Britain’s retail sales data for June leads a light global economic calendar, with no major policymaker speeches due either, as both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are in blackout periods ahead of rate decisions next Wednesday and Thursday.
A sharp drop in the July GfK consumer confidence gauge, which came in below the lowest Reuters poll forecast, suggests sentiment remains downbeat after what’s expected to be a weaker UK retail sales reading for June.
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
UK June retail sales
Earnings: Thales SA, Evolution AB, Danske Bank A/S, American Express Co, Schlumberger NV
(Reporting by Sonali Desai; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
