(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan.
A semblance of calm has returned to world markets in the final week of the first quarter as the banking storm abates and the spotlight switched to a share-boosting six-way revamp of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba.
Investors cheered the surprise move from Alibaba as a sign Beijing’s corporate crackdown may be nearing an end, sending shares of the Jack Ma-founded firm and peers soaring.
The group’s shares jumped as much as 16.3% in Hong Kong on Wednesday, tracking a 14.3% rally in its U.S.-listed shares overnight and leading the benchmark Hang Seng Index up more than 2%.
The fresh focus offered some distraction from weeks of banking stress, which appeared to ease this week as regulators in the United States and Europe closed ranks and insisted no systemic problems were detected as they investigated why the failures unfolded without action in the first place.
The KBW U.S. regional banking index was little changed on Tuesday, with shares of First Citizens BancShares up another notch a day after their 50% surge on news it would acquire the deposits and loans of collapse Silicon Valley Bank.
The banking buzz in Europe on Wednesday surrounded a leadership change at UBS, whose stock climbed 2.2% after the Swiss bank rehired Sergio Ermotti as CEO to steer its massive takeover of failed rival Credit Suisse.
The surprise move seeks to take advantage of Ermotti’s experience rebuilding the bank after the global financial crisis 15 years ago. European bank indexes rose 1%.
With bank bosses in the frame, there was also interest in news that JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon will be interviewed under oath in May in connection with the bank’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, the late sex offender and a former client.
Broader stock markets were higher across the board, with Wall St futures up almost 1% ahead of the open. The VIX index of implied stock volatility slipped back to its lowest level since March 9 – the day after the SVB shock emerged.
Interest rate markets assessed the easing of bank tensions and also the surprisingly resilient U.S. consumer confidence reading for March, a survey which straddled the quake in SVB and the related depositor nerves.
Two-year Treasury yields hit their highest level in a week at 4.12% early on Wednesday before slipping back. Futures markets now show a 50-50 chance of one more Fed rate hike in this cycle in May and half a point of easing by yearend.
The dollar was marginally higher.
Elsewhere, there was good news in the chip world. Germany’s Infineon climbed 5.1% after the chipmaker raised its outlook for both its fiscal second quarter and the whole of 2023. The wider tech index climbed 1.7% to lead sectoral gains.
The crypto world continued to look in trepidation at pressure on dominant exchange Binance.
After suing Binance this week, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Tuesday that activity at the crypto exchange was a pretty clear case of evasion and U.S. authorities needed to step in aggressively and as quickly as possible.
Key developments that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Wednesday:
* U.S. Feb pending home sales
* U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr; European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel speaks; Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann
* U.S. Treasury auctions 7-year notes
* U.S. corporate earnings: Cintas, Paychex
(Graphic: Alibaba’s struggles – https://www.reuters.com/graphics/ALIBABA-CHINA/RESTRUCTURING/xmpjkbxlzvr/chart.png)
(Graphic: US money market fund inflows highest since April 2020 – https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-MARKETS/FLOWS/klpygqonypg/chart.png)
(Graphic: Failed US banks accumulated assets during pandemic – https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-BANKS/SVB/myvmobwbzvr/graphic.jpg)
(Graphic: US consumer confidence – https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-CONSUMER/CONSUMER%20CONFIDENCE/znvnblokkvl/graphic.jpg)
(By Mike Dolan; Editing by Bernadette Baum; mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com. Twitter: @reutersMikeD)
