JAKARTA (Reuters) – Indonesia’s trade surplus likely narrowed further in December, with moderating global commodity prices expected to result in a $4.01 billion surplus, the lowest in seven months, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
Indonesia enjoyed an export boom last year due to high global commodity prices, though prices of its top commodities have cooled in recent months alongside a global trade slowdown.
The median forecast from 10 economists in a Reuters poll was for a $4.01 billion trade surplus in December, the smallest since May and compared with November’s surplus of $5.16 billion.
Exports are forecast to show growth of 6.65% annually last month, higher than November’s 5.58% increase.
Meanwhile, imports likely fell 7.58% on a yearly basis, the biggest drop since November 2020.
Bank Permata economist Josua Pardede, who forecast a $4.17 billion surplus, said the value of oil and gas imports last month should show a fall due to lower global crude oil prices.
The bank forecast a surplus of $54.8 billion for the January to December 2022 period, slowing to a range of $40 billion to $45 billion this year as commodity prices ease and trade slows.
Indonesian officials said the country’s trade surplus in 2022 is set to be the biggest on record with the surplus in the January to November period at $50.6 billion, already bigger than the last record annual trade surplus in 2006.
(Polling by Vivek Mishra and Veronica Khongwir in Bengaluru; Writing by Stefanno Sulaiman in Jakarta; Editing by Ed Davies)
