By Susan Mathew
(Reuters) – Brazil’s currency fell on Monday after supporters of former president Jair Bolsonaro stormed the capital, while Chile’s peso hit seven-month highs, driven by a leap in copper prices as China’s reopened borders drove expectation of higher demand.
Supporters of the far-right Bolsonaro invaded and defaced the country’s Congress, presidential palace and Supreme Court in Brasilia on Sunday and continued protests on Monday, days after the leftist administration under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was sworn-in following a close election win in October.
Brazil’s real snapped a three-day winning run, down 1.1%. Stocks fell 0.6%, although shares of state-run oil major Petrobras erased a chunk of its 2% session losses to last trade down 0.2% as oil prices jumped.
Analysts expect the unrest and its impact on markets to be short-lived as authorities try to contain the protests, with the focus soon turning back macroeconomic indicators.
The market impact will depend on how the Lula administration and other government institutions react to the protests, said Bertrand Delgado, head of Latam Fx and fixed income with Societe Generale.
Should the riots continue, the main risk would stem from the already delicate fiscal situation, Delgado said.
“The Lula administration will have to become more aggressive in dealing with the riots and the belligerent opposition, and at the same time they will have to compensate or bring more economic activity, more economic growth in a tough year.”
A central bank survey on Monday showed Brazil’s inflation and interest rate expectations for the year had risen.
While most other Latin American currencies also fell, underperforming broader emerging market peers, Chile’s peso rose 0.8% as copper prices hit six-month highs. [MET/L]
Data showed Chile posted a trade surplus of $1.85 billion in the month, up from a $417 million surplus in December 2021.
In Mexico, the peso inched lower, snapping a five-day winning streak and retreating from over one-month highs.
Data showed Mexico’s headline inflation ended 2022 slightly below analysts’ expectations, while core inflation appeared to have lost steam. Annual headline inflation in December reached 7.82%, up moderately from 7.80% in November.
In Argentina, the economy will grow significantly more than 5% in 2023, Economy Minister Sergio Massa said on Sunday.
Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:
Stock indexes Latest Daily %
change
MSCI Emerging Markets 1013.68 2.53
MSCI LatAm 2171.80 -0.46
Brazil Bovespa 108322.30 -0.59
Mexico IPC 0.00 0
Chile IPSA 5143.59 0.13
Argentina MerVal 217935.81 1.937
Colombia COLCAP 1326.74 0.61
Currencies Latest Daily %
change
Brazil real 5.2941 -1.11
Mexico peso 19.1556 -0.16
Chile peso 835.2 0.60
Colombia peso 4854.14 0.10
Peru sol 3.7801 0.10
Argentina peso 180.0900 -0.46
(interbank)
(Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; editing by Barbara Lewis)
