LONDON (Reuters) – JPMorgan raised its outlook for emerging market hard-currency debt on Monday to “marketweight” from “underweight”, saying latest U.S. inflation data cemented a shift to the next phase in the cycle with focus now on growth and U.S. recession risks.
“We move our EMBIGD Model Portfolio back to MW from UW” the Wall Street investment bank said, explaining focus was moving away from “higher inflation, leading to higher terminal Fed Funds as the primary (bearish) EM market driver.”
However, this was not yet the entry point for investors to dive into emerging market sovereign credit they added.
JPMorgan’s emerging market strategist Jonny Goulden said Federal Reserve hiking cycles were usually followed by a “wait” period before the onset of a U.S. recession or possibly even an emerging markets financial crisis.
“This will be the largest Fed hiking cycle for decades, with a large tightening in broad financial conditions”.
“But we have highlighted that the ‘wait’ period when the Fed has delivered its last hikes is usually accompanied by some relief” (in emerging markets)
(Reporting by Karin Strohecker; editing by Marc Jones)
