WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Environmental Protection Agency this week finalized new rules that will reduce tailpipe emissions through 2026, improving efficiency by 28.3% and avoiding 3.1 billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions through 2050.
The new rules will make it cheaper to drive and save consumers billions at the gas pump – reducing U.S. gasoline consumption by more than 440 million barrels through 2050, a 15% reduction in U.S. gasoline consumption.
But EPA says it will lead to more driving – meaning more congestion, and additional road deaths – since per-mile driving costs will decline, and $50 to $100 billion less in federal gas taxes collected through 2050.
Here are some details:
* EPA says benefits of the rule exceed costs by $120 billion to $190 billion through 2050, including $8 and $19 billion of total benefits through 2050 result from improved public health due to reduced emissions of pollutants like NOx.
* American drivers will save between $210 billion and $420 billion through 2050 in fuel costs.
* EPA says the cost of the rule is $180 billion to $300 billion – with the vast majority in higher vehicle manufacturing costs.
* EPA estimates that the program will increase the cost of an average vehicle build in 2026 by $1,000 – including $698 for Ford Motor and $1,516 for General Motors vehicles – but drivers will recoup than and another $1,080 over the life of the vehicles.
* EPA projects by 2026 17% of vehicles sold will be electric or plug-in hybrid models.
* EPA estimates Americans will drive an additional 304 billion miles through 2050, or 0.3% more than without the rule. EPA estimates over the same 30-year period, total traffic fatalities will increase by 1,780 — most due to increased driving. But says EPA “the rule will not increase risk, as calculated on an injury per mile traveled basis.”
* Increased driving will lead to congestion costs of $390 million to $490 million annually, the EPA estimates
* EPA says the energy security benefits of the rule by avoiding macroeconomic disruption from additional gasoline use is $7 billion to $14 billion.
* EPA is eliminating multiplier incentives for natural gas vehicles to meet emissions rules.
* EPA agreed to extend the life of some credits earned in prior model years over the objections of Tesla, which argued that would lessen the value of credits in the trading market. “Any loss of credit value is likely more than offset by the stringent final standards which could make available credits even more sought after by some manufacturers, and thus potentially increasing credit value,” the agency said https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2021-12/ld-ghg-stndrs-fr-2021-12-20.pdf.
* EPA also agreed to extend incentives for full-size pickups for 2023-2024 over Tesla’s objections, which argued it would erode the stringency of the requirements and “is not needed to incentivize deployment of actual EV pickups.”
(Reporting by David Shepardson; Editing by Nick Zieminski)
